Korea

In the past few days, we've heard of the escalating situation in Korea. Shells were fired in a civilian area, with four confirmed deaths and the injury of 18 others. Our knowledge of North Korea's irrational leader, Kim Jong-Il, we consider the worst possible outcome to be within the realm of possibility. But is it?

I certainly don't think so; nothing more will come of this conflict. Few would consider Kim Jong-Il reasonable, but I don't believe he's as crazy as everyone portrays him to be. By this I refer specifically to the fear of nuclear war that surfaces every instance his name is mentioned. His army is aging, as is he. Furthermore, he holds dear the theory of self-reliance promoted by father, all the while accepting large quantities of food, weapons, and funds from China. Additionally, the Nuclear Bomb test conducted by North Korea in 2006 was far too small to be considered successful, a fact largely ignored. Many analysts simply believe that the bomb malfunctioned, or that it wasn't even a nuclear weapon. Several media outlets even reported Kim Jong-Il as apologizing for the blast and promising there would be no more. I conclude that he is simply unstable, but afraid to the extent of inaction.

This even explains the attack this week. The KCNA, North Korea's state-run communications service blamed the South for "harming inter-Korean relations," and "challenging the desire of all Koreans." That, plus a slew of ham-fisted insults suggest that while showing a brave demeanour, they have no desire for war. They are afraid. In fact, the United States is sending a few ships to participate in the South Korea War-games as a deterrent against further attacks. If the Americans anticipated a violent North Korean response, would it send its ships to their border, where they can easily be destroyed if so desired by the North Koreans. If they are indeed destroyed, American Law dictates this is an act of aggression and the nation will declare war. They are aware that North Korea will not attack. They will appear unshaken and fearless, but be shaking on the inside.

The only factor that could cause a North Korean response is China. Without China, North Korea will fall within the month. They are a puppet state that provide the world a cause for alarm, distracting them from the abuses conducted in China. However, China will not allow a North Korean response. The common argument is that one side of the spectrum of the decision concerns China's economic benefit, the other is the benefit of the communist ideology. Indeed, trying to debate which is more important isn't easy. The reality however is that there is only one option. It will benefit the economy and the ideology to continue this peace- peace brings profit for China. As it grows stronger economically, the Communist ideology will grow stronger as well, due to the example China will provide as proof of its validity.

There is only one choice to make, and it's win-win. This choice excludes war. There will be peace in the region, although uncomfortable peace that borders tension. There will not be war however. Not tomorrow, not next week, month, year or decade.